The Outcome Lab
Compare red/black with a single-number bet. Same wheel, same initial stake, same average cost—and different ways to get there.
A fixed number of independent spins. No stopping rule, bankroll limit or change of stake.
After completing every spin.
Each bar groups final net results. Select one for its probability.
After completing every spin.
Each bar groups final net results. Select one for its probability.
All outcomes are retained, including tiny probabilities. The chart groups them only to fit the screen. Probabilities below numerical precision are marked <1e-306%.
Each spin has equally likely pockets. Red/black wins on 18 pockets; a single number wins on one. The wheel has 37 or 38 pockets. Winning bets pay 1 to 1 or 35 to 1 respectively; a loss costs the stake.
The distribution uses the binomial formula: P(k wins) = C(n,k) × pᵏ × (1−p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ. Net result = stake × ((payout + 1) × winning spins − total spins). The model accounts for every possible win count; it does not sample random sessions.
The percentile range is descriptive, not a guarantee. Both charts use the same dollar bins and probability scale. The central range spans the two distributions’ 0.1st–99.9th percentiles; the end bars include all remaining tail outcomes. Every outcome remains in the full table.
The model excludes la partage, en prison, the five-number bet, changes of stake and early stopping. It assumes every planned spin is completed, even after substantial losses.
Rules and Probability Source →
ExSpade