House edge, ranked
Every major casino game by its real long-run cost — a 40x spread between the best and worst seats in the house.
Odds, edges, and smarter play
The house always has an edge. Know exactly how big.
ExSpade explains the real math of casino games — expected value, house edge, and variance — so you know what every bet actually costs before you place it. No systems, no affiliate rankings.
0.4%house edge — blackjack, played correctly
5.26%house edge — American roulette
20%+house edge — keno
What we cover
The math the casino counts on you skipping
Expected value, explained
The ten-second calculation that prices any bet: casino, sportsbook, or a coin flip with a friend.
Trap bets exposed
Side bets, insurance, and props that cost ten times the main game — and sit right next to it on the felt.
Rules that move the price
3:2 vs 6:5 blackjack, soft 17, surrender — how table rules quietly triple the cost of playing well.
No systems sold
No betting systems, no 'guaranteed' methods, no affiliate casino rankings. Just the arithmetic.
Play responsibly
Set limits before you play and treat every session as paid entertainment. If it stops being fun: 1-800-GAMBLER.
The short version
How to lose less
01
Pick low-edge games
Blackjack with basic strategy, baccarat banker, craps pass line. Game selection is the biggest lever you have.
02
Skip the trap bets
Ties, props, insurance, and side bets carry 5–17% edges. The main game is almost always the cheapest seat.
03
Decide limits first
EV sets the average; variance guarantees worse nights. Fix your loss limit before the first bet, not after.
Questions players actually ask
Can a betting system beat a negative-EV game?
No. Martingale and friends reshape variance — many small wins, rare catastrophic losses — but every spin resolves to the same negative expected value. No staking pattern changes the underlying arithmetic.
Which casino game has the best odds?
Blackjack played with basic strategy under good rules, at roughly 0.4–0.6% house edge. Baccarat banker (1.06%) and the craps pass line (1.41%) are the next cheapest.
What's the worst bet in the casino?
Keno can exceed a 20% house edge. On the table floor, craps 'any 7' (16.7%) and the baccarat tie (14.4%) lead — both sitting inches from far cheaper bets.
If the edge is only a few percent, why do casinos profit so reliably?
Volume. A small negative edge applied to millions of bets is a guarantee, not a gamble. Your hundred spins are noise; the casino's hundred million are arithmetic.
Does a hot or cold streak change anything?
No. Dice, wheels, and shuffled decks have no memory. A number being 'due' is the gambler's fallacy — the next trial has exactly the same odds as the last.
Insights
From the blog
Strategy
Expected Value: The Only Gambling Math You Actually Need
What expected value means, how to calculate it for any bet in ten seconds, and why every casino game has a negative EV you can measure precisely.
StrategyHouse Edge, Ranked: Which Casino Games Give You the Best Shot
Every major casino game ranked by house edge, from blackjack at under 0.5% to keno above 20% — and the bets to avoid at otherwise good tables.
Know the price of every bet
Start with expected value — the ten-second math that explains every game on the floor.
Start here