ExSpadeImplied Probability
Meaning
The break-even win rate encoded by a price, before costs.
Worked Example
Decimal odds of 2.50 imply 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%. A 40% win rate breaks even under a simple win-or-loss model.
Common Mix-Up
The price does not prove that the event has this probability.
Put the Term to Work.
Follow a concrete example, then change the inputs.
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